Most hackers are stupid.   (I’ll probably be hacked for writing that.)   They like to demonstrate how clever they are by stealing passwords from the gullible, breaking websites with out-of-date software, and putting up truly idiotic messages on the web.   This is like proving your cleverness by grabbing the purses of little old ladies, stealing 1973 Volkswagens, and spray-painting your name on people’s houses.   Stupid.

And like a mindless virus, they are persistent.   Whenever one matures enough to realize that messing up websites isn’t really a meaningful way to spend one’s life, another crop of teenage boys figure out how to visit hacker discussion groups, and the process continues.

Even though it’s not my job, I often find myself helping out folks who have been hacked and are trying to pick up the pieces.   Today’s minor episode started with an email I received:

Dear Customer,

This is a notice that an invoice has been generated on 02/03/2009.

Your payment method is: 2CheckOut

Invoice #763
Amount Due: $19.94 USD
Due Date: 01/15/2009

Invoice Items

Personal – appact11.com (02/02/2009 – 02/14/2009) $4.99 USD
Domain Registration – appact11.com – 1 Year/s $14.95 USD
——————————————————
Sub Total: $19.94 USD
Credit: $0.00 USD
Total: $19.94 USD
——————————————————

You can login to your client area to view and pay the invoice at http://www.webhosting.com/billing/viewinvoice.php?id=763

Hosting Team

This is a “phishing” attempt.   The email is bogus, invented simply to get people to click on the link and then enter their login information.   I knew it was bogus by several indications:

1. I never registered any such website (“appact11.com”).   The hackers know I know this, but they hope that I will click on the link anyway to “clear up the misunderstanding.”
2. The email didn’t come from any company that I recognize, and is deliberately vague (“Hosting Team,” “Dear Customer”).
3. Despite how it appears, the link for the invoice actually went to an entirely different website.   I could tell this without clicking on the link simply by pointing my mouse at it but not clicking.

The link was actually to a website of an innocent fellow in Canada who does weddings, but the hackers obscured that by creating a secret web address on his site which looked like a standard login page.   If you fell for this one, you’d probably enter your web host login and you’d get an error message that said you did it wrong.   Since this is a fake, no combination of username/password would ever work.   Eventually you might get tired of it, or realize your mistake, but by then it would be too late.   The hackers would take the usernames and passwords you so generously entered and use them to hack your website, too.

The first guy who thought up this approach was clever, but the millions of followers who are doing it today are just copycats. It takes no special skills.

Being a good netizen, I wrote to the legitimate owner of the website and told him:

Sorry to be the bearer of bad news, but it appears that your website at www.namewithheld.com has been hacked.   I received this email today (along with thousands of other people probably):     …

… and then explained to him what “phishing” was, and told him what to do:

You need to have this cleaned off your site, then change all passwords related to your site.   If you don’t know how, you should get someone experienced to help you.

I was a little trepidatious about reaching out in this way.   A lot of people would assume I was the hacker.   Others might respond with requests that I fix the problem, thinking that I was a higher level of good Samaritan than I am. I could get an angry email, or get sucked into a long series of explanatory emails.   I wanted to help, but I didn’t have tons of time to spend on this.

Fortunately, this contact worked out well.   Within a couple of hours, he wrote back:

I have contacted my web host and indeed my site was hacked.   They have removed the contaminated files.   I have reported the matter to Toronto Police Services and have also contacted the Ontario   Provincial Police.

They informed that this type of activity is very common.   As it originates off shore there is little they can do about it.   I am personally quite upset and feel somewhat victimized.   I am very embarrassed that my site and reputation have been brought into disfavour.   I am not sure what else I can do or say.

Thank you for being so watchful.   I do appreciate it.

Why am I writing about this?   Because hacks happen.   Phishing attempts succeed.   I hate to see it happen to innocent people and friends of mine.   Anyone who uses the Internet needs to be at least a little educated about the hazards of it.   A little mis-step in cyberspace can translate to an empty bank account in the real world.   Take care, folks. It’s happening every hour of every day.

First off, let me assure you that I am still alive.   I managed to survive the Recreational Vehicle Industry Association (RVIA)   trade show experience the same way that I survive all such events, meaning that I got along on six hours of jet-lagged sleep each night and trade show meals, ran around like a madman with Brett hunting down potential clients, and haphazardly responded to emails at 10 p.m. before collapsing into bed.   (If you got a terse one-line email response from me this week, that’s why.)

An event like this can really damage your system if you aren’t careful.   The meals alone that businesspeople usually consume while attending an event like this are cause for health concern.   It’s “continental breakfast” in the hotel each morning, trade show food at lunch (expensive convenience-store sandwiches, burgers, hot dogs), snacks of candy and junk food at the booths, and huge dinners every night with clients.   And then on top of that people often overindulge in alcohol after dinner.   You can spot those folks pretty easily the next day on the trade show floor.

Brett and I are old hands at this routine and we both know you’ve got to pace yourself.   Sure, it’s a “free” breakfast and maybe someone else is paying for dinner on his expense account, but if you eat it all you’ll be a constipated and slow-moving target in a few days.   We tried to eat light, avoid fatty foods, avoid alcohol, avoid excessive caffeine, stay hydrated, and then run like hell for two days around the trade show floor.   We wanted to show everyone we met that we were energetic, upbeat, and ready to do business, and it worked.

I think the reason that people so often crash and complain at big events like this is that they set themselves up for it, simply as a result of underestimating the stress they’ll face.   You’ve got potential jet-lag, bad food, irregular meals, uncomfortable shoes, long hours at the booth, sleep deprivation, tedious meetings, and sometimes an emotional rollercoaster with every potential new client.   It’s a formula for physical collapse after a few days in the best of times if you don’t know how to manage it.

This year was particularly hard on some folks because they have been under financial stress as well.   Anyone who sells into the manufacturing market (OEMs), or is a manufacturer, is feeling the pressure.   For a lot of them, filling up their order book at RVIA was mandatory for survival, and I think there will be more than a few who fail in the months to come as a result of not hitting their goals.   We certainly noticed a few who looked like the Maytag repairman during what should have been busy times on the trade show floor.

Fortunately, we received an excellent reception.   We targeted the makers and sellers of interesting premium products that Airstreamers would like, and found that universally those folks were doing fine in the current economy.   We’d pitch them by pointing out that our audience likes innovation, good design, and high quality, and they’d usually respond by saying they needed to target such people.   Then we’d show them how we could save them money by redirecting their big ad spend from XXXX publication to Airstream Life, and — voila–   we’d have a solid new prospect.

Everyone has been asking me for “news from the show.”   Honestly, I didn’t spend much time gathering gossip or reading the press releases, and we didn’t go to any seminars or talks.   What I saw was much the same as prior years, except that a few manufacturers were showing “eco-friendly” designs (meaning some changes in materials), and there were some super-lightweight experiments as well.   Damon has a new Class A motorhome that they claim gets “up to” 14.5 MPG, and Dutchman introduced a 30-foot bunkhouse that weighs about 3,000 lbs.   In both cases, my sense was that they’re going to have to figure ways to engineer out the generally flimsy feeling of the interior appointments, but I’m glad to see them at least starting in the right direction.

Airstream had one lightweight prototype to show, a “skunk works” experiment called the “Scout.”   It’s a retro canned-ham style trailer that incorporates a lot of new materials for a base weight of about 2,000 lbs.   It’s pretty neat but there’s no decision yet whether it will ever be produced — and if it is produced, it may not be badged as an Airstream.   Still, the lightweight materials in this experiment may show up in new Airstream production soon.

Airstream has also announced the shipment of a batch of trailers to KOA Kampgrounds across the country.   These Airstreams will be available for rent in Las Vegas, Sugarloaf Key FL, Bar Harbor ME, and a few other locations.   They’re calling this an “iconic Kamping experience.”   Whatever you call it, I think it will be very popular.   I get queries all the time from people wanting to know where they can rent an Airstream, but up till now it was impossible.   Although you can’t tow these Airstreams away from the KOA, you can spend a night in one and discover how cool they are.   It’s a great way to try before you buy!

We also got tours of some of the newer Airstream models.   John Huttle walked us through the Airstream Interstate 3500 again (we saw it previously in Jackson Center last summer).   Now they’ve got a $3,000 upgrade package that gives you a beautiful floor, Mercedes-Benz seating throughout, slick cabinetry, more LED lights, and other tweaks.   One passer-by jokingly called it the “Pimpstream.”   With this package, the interior looks like a business jet.   I could not believe how comfortable the seats were.   If I had $120k to spend, I would buy this rig, hit the road at 22 MPG, and never come back.   It’s a good thing for my family that I can’t quite afford it.

Later, Bruce Bannister took us into the latest iteration of the Sport series, which is Airstream’s lowest cost and lightest trailer line.   The new Sport 22-footer is really smart, with a new wrap-around dinette and front bedroom, plus the same roomy rear bath that previous Sports had.   For the money (probably low $30s) and the lower weight, it will make sense for a lot of new Airstream buyers.

All the Airstream guys were wearing round buttons that said, “got credit?”   Parent company Thor has reopened its consumer credit division, so lending to potential buyers is not a problem if you buy Airstream (or another Thor brand). This was not news at RVIA, but it certainly did cause a buzz in the crowd.   Anytime someone complained that sales were slow because of credit problems, someone else would mention the Thor move, and the discussion would come to an abrupt halt.

My feeling overall is very bullish.   Not only are we still seeing plenty of advertising prospects, but everyone in the service or aftermarket parts sectors claims to be doing just fine.   People are still using their RVs, upgrading them, and lately enjoying low fuel prices.   Marginal manufacturers with bad products, heavy debt, or inflexible business models are suffering the most, and some of them will go away soon.   I think we need to work out some redundancy in the market, clean up some overextended businesses, and continue to work on the credit problem, and then we’ll see a general rise in 2009.

So now I’m back in Tucson, a bit tired but ready to tackle the tasks of the coming weeks.   There are many follow-up calls to be made, plus the Spring 2009 issue is in production, and a lot of activity in our store, too.   Time to get in gear, and work toward a great 2009!

Last year, when people were talking about putting together a 50th anniversary Cape Town to Cairo Airstream caravan for 2009, somebody also came up with the idea of reprinting Wally Byam’s book “Trailer Travel Here and Abroad.”   Published in 1960, the book has long been out of print and copies are very difficult to find.   As with almost everything written from the glory days of Airstream in the 1950s and 1960s, that book is considered highly desirable by Airstream aficionados.

One of the organizers approached me to see if I could help.   He would donate a sacrificial copy of the book if I could work out how to scan it, reprint it in limited quantities, and distribute it to all of the caravan members.   I say “sacrificial” because in the process of scanning it, the book would likely be severely damaged or even cut to individual pages.

The problem with this idea was that there really is no good way to reproduce old books.   You can copy the pages and reprint them exactly as they appeared (smudges, tears, and all), but this generally results in something fairly crummy looking.   It also forces you to use exactly the same page proportions as the original.

Another method is simply to have a person re-type every word of the book.   That process is so expensive that it usually doesn’t make economic sense for purposes of reprinting an old book in small quantities.

Or, you can try Optical Character Recognition (OCR) to try to turn the printed words into a word-processing document, which can then be edited and reformatted.   But this also doesn’t work well, since the state of OCR technology is far from perfect.   Error rates are often high, which means a human being must go over every word to fix all the errors, and that can be just as bad as re-typing the whole book.

Interestingly, the wizards at Carnegie-Mellon University have found a great solution.   They’re getting you to help with the OCR process.   And they’ve gotten me to do it.   And millions of other people have been recruited as well. In fact, so many of us are helping that up to 150,000 hours of work can be contributed to the project every day.

You know those little text puzzles you have to solve before you can post comments on a blog, like the one above? They are called “captchas.”   The Carnegie-Mellon kids are using them to digitize old books and newspapers. One word in the puzzle is known to the computer, the other one is a word from an old book that the OCR software couldn’t recognize.   When you type the correct answer to the “known” word, the computer assumes your answer to the other word is also correct. Then it checks your answer against other people’s answers.   When enough people confirm the word, it gets added to the digitized version of the book.

Distributed computing projects like the Search for Extra-Terrestrial Intelligence (SETI) have been commonplace for years.   Those projects rely on thousands of people allowing their personal computers to be used to solve tiny bits of very large mathematical problems.   But this is a new sort of distribution: Instead of computers being recruited to do the work, it is being distributed across millions of humans, most of whom have no idea that they’re working on a greater project.

What incredible irony.   We’ve developed a massive computing network that spans the globe, linking billions of people and enabling incredible capabilities, and we’re using it to facilitate a job that only humans can do.   When you solve the captcha, you’re becoming the ultimate worker bee, working toward the greater good but ignorant of the exact nature of the final project. You have to wonder, are the computers working for us, or are we working for the computers?

I suppose another way to look at it is that we are all contributing a tiny bit to eliminate the need for good typists. Thirty years ago, the job of re-setting the book would have been handed to a bunch of typesetters (a job title that no longer exists in the modern age).   But instead of hiring them, we are getting the job done for free by using the Internet to make use out of what would otherwise be wasted effort.

Another irony is that this wouldn’t be possible if the spammers hadn’t forced the need for captchas in the first place.   By relentlessly harassing websites, spammers have enabled this book digitization project.   Next time you encounter a spammer online, remember that someday Wally’s books will be available in print again and it might be thanks to them.

Yesterday I was having lunch at Zivaz (my new favorite Mexican restaurant in Tucson) with Adam and Susan.   They’re back from Los Angeles with their Airstream, and eager to talk about all things new and interesting, which is part of why   the lunch went on for nearly three hours.

Sometime after the plates were cleared, our conversation turned to the incredible array of Internet-based communications technologies that people have adopted lately.   We were specifically fascinated by the options for self-promotion: blogs, forums, Facebook, MySpace, etc.   I was interested in how those technologies might merge with other Internet communications like Skype, instant messaging, video conferencing, and with communities like online forums, Yahoo Groups, Gather, and LinkedIn.   It feels like an important evolution is in the wind.

It feels this way partly because there are so many overlapping offerings, and partly because the speed of self-promotion has accelerated.   Blogs allow you to post your thoughts every day or even every hour if you care to.   With micro-blog sites like Twitter, you can now keep the world abreast of your activities on a minute-by-minute basis.   “I’m having lunch with friends at Zivaz,” my Twitter post might say, and later, “I’m shopping for hiking boots on the east side.”   People can subscribe to your Twitter stream and keep up with your updates via mobile phone, if they want.

Amazingly, people do. To   me, posting every turn on the road and every snack you eat on the Internet seems narcissistic, and this is coming from a guy who posted his daily activities on a blog for three years.   But people do it, and on that basis alone I have to study the phenomenon to understand why they do it.   The trivialities of another person’s life can be very relevant if that’s someone you care about.   There is value to almost any information, for someone, even if it doesn’t work for me.   (I imagine myself trying to keep up with my hourly activities and it feels like something you can only maintain with extreme diligence or an abundance of ego.)

The other reason I am watching new communications and networking technologies is because they are surprisingly relevant to publishing a magazine.   Being a publisher means you need to take an interest in all things, and being a print publisher means you are selling horses in a Model T world, so you’d better be looking carefully at The Next Big Thing.   I don’t want to end up like the guy who sold typewriters, telegraphs, or film cameras.

Back in a former career I was charged with sitting around my office and thinking about things like this.   It was a great job, because I got to dig into technology and sociology subjects that I found interesting, and then do a ZOLTAR act, presenting my best guess as to what the future held.   People paid well for this, because I was part of a tight little team that usually got it right.   (A few of my minor blatherings live on in the Internet as archived columns and press releases.   The things that survive that period are not necessarily representative of my best work, but the Internet answers to no one.)

Now in the publishing business, I find myself spending a lot of time doing the same work.   I’m not in the paper business, I’m in the information business, and so there will inevitably come a time when I need to disseminate my information in a different way.   The only questions are:   when, and how?

Everyone loves a crystal ball, even if it’s not always 100% spot on, because any hint of what’s coming helps ease our collective anxiety. It’s useful to me to build forecasts of the future so I can plan ahead, since Airstream Life is a quarterly with very long lead times.   The changes I want to make next summer and fall have to be planned today.

The trick is simply to listen critically, a skill not taught in most schools.   I trust my analytic skills but I’m not so vain as to think I know it all, so I listen.   I also don’t trust any single media outlet to be unbiased and accurate, so I criticize.   The media like to base their views on “consensus” of analysts, but having been in that industry I can tell you that the entire analytical field can be dead wrong and often is.   Just because a lot of people in the industry think (or want to believe) something is going to happen, doesn’t have anything to do with whether it does.   If you projected the accuracy rate of most analysts as a percentage, you’d find that weathermen do a lot better.

I’ll teach you how to be an analyst.   It’s like making jewelry.   You don’t start with a design in mind.   You start by digging through millions of tons of muck (perspectives of other people) trying to find a few diamonds in the rough (good ideas).   Then you clean up each diamond, check it for flaws (fact-checking), and if it meets your standard, you trim it up into something better.

Each diamond directs you to the ultimate jewelry that it should be.   Once you’ve got enough diamonds, you’ll see the finished pattern, and you can assemble your piece into a beautiful theory.   As long as you don’t force the process, it almost always works.

The failing of this process is when the underlying assumptions of the entire world are wrong.   You’d be amazed at how often that happens.   When the underlying assumptions are wrong, everyone’s theories are wrong by default.   For example, imagine all the weathermen predicting tomorrow’s high temperature.   If the sun goes nova, they’re all going to be wrong, aren’t they?

Analysts and academics excuse their errors in this regard by blaming “disruptive technology,” “quantum leaps,”   “hidden factors,” and a whole host of other terms.   What they mean is, “We didn’t see that coming.”   Technology people love this, because it always sounds good for them to call their latest invention “disruptive” or “game-changing” even if it isn’t.   It helps with raising money.   But a good analyst should never fall in love with their theories to the point that they forget to consider that all the underlying assumptions are dead wrong.

This explains why I like looking at our self-absorbed, noisy, and wildly diverse opinions. Sure, we may be becoming a nation of narcissists who post rants and idiotic opinions in public forums, but we are also a nation of people with ideas. Those ideas are going to form the basis of our future.   I want to know what those ideas are.

This is also why I am a rabid First Amendment supporter.   Some ideas are bad ideas, but quashing ideas is never good.  Once in a while I get a letter from someone “disappointed and disgusted” in the magazine for something I allowed to reach print.  Once it was a cartoon that was perceived as sexist, another time it was a photo considered racist.  Once I said something about a campground in a blog and a couple of people told me I shouldn’t criticize.  All of these people ran to what I call “the free market defense,” threatening to cancel their subscriptions.

I encourage that.   My opinion is that someone who thinks only their ideas and perspectives should be allowed in print, doesn’t deserve the benefits of a free press.   Those who are so inured to conflicting opinions or standards that they must refuse to accept a harmless travel magazine should probably stay home with the shades drawn.   So my approach is to politely share my view on the offending item, and then invite them to cancel if they can’t see their way to continuing to support the magazine.   I have never caved in to pressure of this type and I never will.

I think the magazine’s readers are generally tolerant people.   In four years of publishing I’ve gotten four or five hate letters.   Mostly the letters seem to come from unhappy people who feel victimized about all sorts of things. The rest of the bunch put up with whatever I produce.   I’m curious, however, to see if I get any reaction to the photo on page 44 of the new Winter 2008 issue (in the mail now).

We live in communities of people bound together by ideas and commonalities.   The magazine represents the centerpiece of American freedom and a centuries-old publishing tradition that helps hold communities together.   Somewhere down the road — soon, I hope — we will expand the role of the magazine to encompass the fascinating Internet technologies that are developing and integrating right now.   If we do it right, we’ll grow stronger (both as a business and as a community), and have more fun. I’m looking forward to that.